Jeopardy! held its annual Teen Tournament a couple of weeks ago. As usual, the contestants were frightfully brainy kids who know way too much for their ages, and as usual I was impressed by their knowledge.
As usual, however, their wagering strategy left much to be desired. I dearly wish that someone would provide the crème-de-la-crème of our high schoolers with some rudimentary tutoring in this subject so that they wouldn’t look like complete fools when placing their bets — even as they answer esoterica that would befuddle most adults.
Here’s an analysis of the 2008 tournament. Although I name names, this is not meant as criticism of the individuals; although they provide the specific examples, they are merely illustrations of the general norm.
To begin, Zia was a complete juggernaut during the quarterfinals. He had 15,600 after the first round, and a neat (and impressive) 50,000 going into the final round. With the second-place guy (Nick) holding 15,600, Zia was a runaway — he needed to wager nothing in order to move on. But I guess he figured “what the heck, might as well see how much I could pile on,” so he tried to bet as much as he safely could.
Except that he goofed on the math. He bet 19,399 instead of 18,399, and when he got it wrong he had 30,601 rather than 31,601. If Nick had bet it all and gotten it right, he would have had 31,600 and won. In that case, Zia would have pulled a Clavin, all for a basic error in subtraction. There’s no reason to make a simple mistake like this, given that contestants have essentially unlimited time to ponder their wagers.
Nick, too, wagered poorly. Qualification for the semifinals includes four wild card spots, and in past years 15,000 has been about the bare minimum needed to have any hope for a wild card (this year, the fourth-place wild card had 13,000, although the median for the four wild cards was 19,600). It turns out that Nick’s 15,800 would have given him the fourth wild card, although he would not have known that at the time. Regardless, betting 5,800 was probably ill-advised, since by getting it wrong he took himself completely out of the wild card race. Unless he was very confident of the final category, he would have been better off leaving it alone.
In the semis, Zia was not so much a juggernaut, but was still a… dreadnought at least. Toward the end of the second round, he had 28,600 when Katie hit the last Daily Double with 10,000 in the bank and 7,200 remaining on the board. She instantly made a fatal error — she never even looked at the scoreboard before declaring her wager. There was no consideration at all in her meager 2,000 bet. Here’s how I would analyze the math involved:
Zia had 28,600. Katie had 10,000. The board had 7,200 left after she hit the Double.
Assume that, all else being equal, the 3 contestants will evenly split the remaining money; therefore, each will take 2,400. This ultimately would give Zia 31,000 and Katie 12,400 (ignoring the 10,000 available to her for the Double). Going into the final, Katie could then muster 24,800 by doubling, leaving her 6,200 short. Half this amount, or 3,100, is the bare minimum she could wager to stay in the game, with the caveat that getting it wrong will take her completely out of the game.
Of course, the above math is a bit too involved to utilize mid-game. So the quick math comes from asking what it would take to get to half the leader’s amount right now, in order to stay in the game. In Katie’s case, this was 28,600 /2 – 10,000 = 4,300.
Basically, she was so far behind, she was really in the position of needing to bet big, and get it right. Fail to do either, and she’s out of the game. She failed to bet big, so even though she got it right, it was game over for her.
Then, in the finals, the soon-to-be champion Rachel nearly pulled a Clavin of her own. She had 26,801 from the first game, and 9,800 going into the second game’s final round, for a stand-pat total of 36,601. Her only competition was “Steve,” who at most would be able to muster 18,400 + 8,400 x 2 = 35,200. Rachel had already won! She could wager up to 1,400 for fun, without risking the victory.
Instead, she bet 5,000. Why, I’ll never know. But if “Steve” had bet the farm — which would have seemed pointless and might have risked losing the second-place prize to Zia (if he hadn’t been crashing and burning) — she might have snatched the championship away from Rachel. Lucky for Rachel, who managed to be the only one with the correct final answer, this would be moot.
Zia, with his balls-to-the-wall wagering style, had the most success when it came to capitalizing on Daily Doubles — even though it ultimately bit him in the behind in the last game, when a True Daily Double smacked of desperation. Still, overall I’d say he had the best attitude: what the heck, take a chance. What do you have to lose?